If you listen to Christian McCaffrey, it's just a matter of time before Brandon Aiyuk moves out of San Francisco. Fantasy managers have come to embrace Aiyuk as one of the rare receivers who can do so much with so little. Despite ranking 38th in targets per game among wideouts (6.56), Aiyuk was top-10 among qualifiers in catch rate (71.4% was ninth), yards per target (12.8 was first), yards per catch (17.9 was second), yards per route run (3.06 was third), average depth of target (13.97 yards was seventh), route depth (10.91 yards was first) and explosive catch rate (35.2% was first).
It almost makes his actual Fantasy production -- 15.6 PPR points per game and 10.9 non-PPR points per game -- sound bad. Neither of those numbers put Aiyuk in the top 10 in those respective formats (he was 11th in non-PPR, and 16th in PPR).
We could have used a little more cowbell ... I mean, targets. We gotta have more targets! Guess what? I got a fever! And the only prescription is more targets!
So if he's not going to be on the 49ers, where should Fantasy managers want him to go? We can lay out some realistic and unrealistic spots, but we should root for the team that has a competent quarterback and will give Aiyuk all the work he can handle. Definitely more than 6.56 targets per game.
Aiyuk to the Steelers
Last year the 49ers had the fewest dropbacks per game with 31.8. The Steelers were second-lowest at 33.2 per game and the Falcons were fourth-lowest at 35.2 per game. None of these teams attempted more than 31.2 passes per game, and combined they threw 35-plus passes in 10 games (half by Atlanta). I mention the Falcons because then-head coach Arthur Smith called plays for them, and he'll now call plays for the Steelers.
This cannot be spun in a way that favors Aiyuk's volume at all. Never in Smith's five seasons as a playcaller for an NFL team has he averaged more than 37 dropbacks or 33.7 pass attempts per game. Furthermore, it's expected that Aiyuk would pair with George Pickens, giving the Steelers two very effective receivers to fight over limited targets.
It would take a massive philosophical change not only from Smith but from Steelers coach Mike Tomlin and pretty much the entire history of the Steelers franchise to suddenly become a pass-friendly squad. Did Aiyuk's Week 1 performance at Pittsburgh last season do enough to really make such a thing happen?? And would we trust one of Russell Wilson or Justin Fields to consistently throw accurate downfield passes to Aiyuk while also sort of overlooking Pickens?
If Aiyuk ends up here: He'd be no better than a No. 2 Fantasy receiver with an expectation below the 15.6 PPR points per game he had last season. Pickens would probably fall deep into the No. 3 range among wideouts and all his offseason hype would be squashed. The running backs might actually benefit from lighter boxes because Aiyuk and Pickens can threaten deep, but they wouldn't move up draft rankings. Whoever quarterbacks this group would have excellent upside; if it's Fields and Wilson is somehow not a Steeler, he'd crack the top-10 Fantasy quarterback list. If it's Wilson, he'd be a top-18 type since he could still be a shell of his former self and could get replaced by Fields.
Aiyuk to the Browns
Without Nick Chubb to balance the run game, and with five different quarterbacks starting throughout 2023, the Browns averaged 40.8 dropbacks and 36.7 pass attempts per game -- wild numbers for a team that, like the Steelers, has a history of running the rock. With Chubb expected to miss a sizable portion of the season, it could be said that they could again dial up more passing.
Adding Aiyuk would be a nod to that -- he would immediately become Cleveland's No. 1 target even if Amari Cooper stayed with the team. Naturally, Aiyuk's targets would have a significant boost if Cooper were gone, so the hope would be the contract-squabbled Cooper would get shipped to San Francisco (or elsewhere) if Aiyuk arrived.
That part is crucial -- Cooper led the Browns with 6.5 targets per game in 2022, 7.8 in five games in 2023 strictly when Watson was on the field with different results (11.6 PPR per game with Watson in 2022, 17.6 in five full games in 2023). If Aiyuk hit Cooper's 2023 numbers with Watson he'd be a Fantasy hero. It should also be mentioned but not taken seriously that Watson had three seasons of peppering DeAndre Hopkins to the tune of 10-plus targets per game in Houston. If only we could believe that Watson was as good now as he was then.
If Aiyuk ends up here: Depends on if Cooper stays with him. If Cooper stays then Aiyuk would probably still be a borderline No. 2 receiver, maybe a smidge better than if he were to go to a more run-focused offense like Pittsburgh. If Cooper goes then Aiyuk should have a shot to beat the 15.6 PPR average and could be drafted closer to the top-15 receivers. Either way, I'd worry about a late-season swoon given the six straight outdoor games the Browns will play to end the year. It would be hard to guess on Cooper's status but if he were to go to the Niners there would be excitement for him as a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 wideout. David Njoku might be marginalized just as he has been with Watson for the past two seasons. The run game would get a little boost with Aiyuk's speed-threatening defenses, and if Chubb is back by Week 8 then he'd probably benefit if he's close to his old self. Watson would only flirt with No. 1 QB stature if the Browns were to add Aiyuk and keep Cooper.
Aiyuk to the Patriots
I know reports say they're out, but what if they do something to jump back in? This is an offense that desperately needs a playmaker not only for this year but for the years to come with Drake Maye under center.
To that end, Aiyuk would be appealing long-term. Maye was a downfield slinger at North Carolina who wouldn't panic under pressure and was good among his draft-class peers at making anticipatory throws. In time he could be really good, but maybe not this season.
Current Pats playcaller Alex Van Pelt was a part of those Browns offenses that rarely threw a lot, but he probably would have no choice but to throw more than he'd like this year. The passing volume would figure to benefit Aiyuk considering the rest of the receivers in New England, meaning he'd have a shot at eight targets per game, but the quality of them from Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye would be inconsistent.
If Aiyuk ends up here: He'd be hard-pressed to be any better than a top-20 Fantasy wideout. His volume would go up for sure, but his efficiency and his potential for lots of touchdowns would probably fade. Naturally, his arrival would drive Ja'Lynn Polk, Demario Douglas, and Hunter Henry from late-round sleepers to deep-league dart throws. Rhamondre Stevenson's status wouldn't change a whole lot, and maybe there would be a little more interest in the quarterbacks in two-QB leagues.
Aiyuk to the Commanders
Why would the Niners trade Aiyuk within the NFC to the Commanders? What if it was their best option? And what if that's Aiyuk's preferred destination because it would reunite him with his buddy Jayden Daniels? That same kind of synergy worked out for C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell last year, and Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown a few years back.
Kliff Kingsbury's offenses in Arizona attempted at least 34.6 pass attempts per game on at least 39.1 dropbacks per game. The hunch is that Washington won't aim to be quite as pass-heavy unless they have reason to. Adding Aiyuk might unlock those numbers and really change how they operate, especially since Daniels has performed well through most of training camp.
Washington would also have a fearsome one-two punch at receiver with Aiyuk and Terry McLaurin, though Aiyuk's arrival would probably put an end to McLaurin's days as a go-to guy ... not that they're warranted. At minimum, they'd take turns running deeper routes, meaning that one would help the other get open. They'd dominate targets for sure but Aiyuk would theoretically lead the way.
If Aiyuk ends up here: He'd flirt with an average of seven targets per game from a passer who by all accounts looks good so far. That keeps Aiyuk in the No. 2 receiver range (like around Nos. 15-17) but probably with quality efficiency. McLaurin would sadly fall to a low-end No. 3 receiver with no real hope for consistent upside, but at least he'd have a solid floor. Aiyuk would help the Commanders' running backs see lighter boxes, and with the efficiency boost Daniels could give them, they'd be really interesting picks. Daniels would move into the top-10 among quarterbacks.
Aiyuk Trade Rankings
- Aiyuk to the Browns, Cooper goes
- Aiyuk to the Commanders
- Aiyuk to the Patriots
- Aiyuk to the Steelers
- Aiyuk to the Browns, Cooper stays
What about Aiyuk to the ...
Bills: This is a dream spot. Imagine him with Diggs' workload from last year and hauling throws from Josh Allen?! He'd be a top-12 receiver for sure, maybe even 10th overall.
Chargers: With apologies to Ladd McConkey and Josh Palmer, Aiyuk would give this passing game the alpha receiver it desperately needs. In fact, he'd make them division contenders within the next two years. Try defending Aiyuk off of play-action behind that O-line and with Justin Herbert under center! He'd be a top-15 receiver there.
49ers: HELLO?! Aren't the Niners trying to win the Super Bowl? It takes good players to win the Super Bowl, and Aiyuk is such a good fit for their offense that they should do whatever it takes to mend fences and carry on. Fantasy managers wouldn't be unhappy with Aiyuk if he stayed by the Bay. He's ranked as a top-15 receiver as a 49er. We'll see if he stays that way.
